Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 9%-12%?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $624 held · ended Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$624.28

Combined PnL

$15.83

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 96¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$593.34

Total Shares565

Combined PnL+$50.38

Yes3 traders

Total Value$30.94

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$34.56

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 86.9¢	$547.15	$259.44	+$28.15	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 79¢	$207.75	$225.31	+$17.56	50% 1261-1278 (2539)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.1¢	$104.12	$108.59	+$4.67	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$18.75	$13.36	-$5.38	— 9-6 (15)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$26.07	$10.92	-$15.15	55% 5012-4083 (9095)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$20.68	$6.66	-$14.02	55% 406-335 (741)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$547.15

Value

$259.44

PnL

+$28.15

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$207.75

Value

$225.31

PnL

+$17.56

Record

50%

1261-1278 (2539)

cigarettes

Invested

$104.12

Value

$108.59

PnL

+$4.67

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.75

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$5.38

Record

—

9-6 (15)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.07

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$15.15

Record

55%

5012-4083 (9095)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.68

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$14.02

Record

55%

406-335 (741)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.