Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 3%-6%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$305.34

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 89.1¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$645.01

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$210.83

Yes1 trader

Total Value$105.94

Total Shares828

Combined PnL+$94.51

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 80.2¢	$409.49	$408.86	+$91.07	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$391.45	$338.2	+$50.48	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.9¢	$216.29	$267.58	+$20.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.1¢	$77.64	$70.61	+$30.24
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79.5¢	$89.8	$111.76	+$10.16	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.04	$105.94	+$94.51	50% 1261-1278 (2539)
Haradwaith	Noavg 81.3¢	$32.66	$104.51	+$107.11	42% 5278-7215 (12493)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$17.38	$19.88	+$2.5	— 9-6 (15)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$409.49

Value

$408.86

PnL

+$91.07

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$391.45

Value

$338.2

PnL

+$50.48

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Both legs:

No$216.2979.9¢+$20.24

Yes$77.6414.1¢+$30.24

cigarettes

Invested

$89.8

Value

$111.76

PnL

+$10.16

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$105.94

PnL

+$94.51

Record

50%

1261-1278 (2539)

Haradwaith

Invested

$32.66

Value

$104.51

PnL

+$107.11

Record

42%

5278-7215 (12493)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

9-6 (15)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.