Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 0%-3%?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 89¢ · $814 held · ended Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$813.99

Combined PnL

$172.13

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 88.7¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$803.61

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$185.63

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.38

Total Shares335

Combined PnL-$13.49

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 76.9¢	$461.02	$599.25	+$138.23	59% 13-9 (22)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 82.3¢	$93.02	$112.89	+$15.62	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$24.03	$19.98	+$0.55	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.98	+$1.58	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80¢	$292.78	$18.99	+$26.69	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.01	$17.01	-$0	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$10.08	$13.14	+$2.51	56% 453-353 (806)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$19.15	$7.87	-$11.28	41% 144-204 (348)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$1.81	$2.37	+$0.44	28% 485-1268 (1753)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$3.67	$2.32	-$1.35	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$1.05	$0.18	-$0.87	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$461.02

Value

$599.25

PnL

+$138.23

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

cigarettes

Invested

$93.02

Value

$112.89

PnL

+$15.62

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$24.03

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.55

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$1.58

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$292.78

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$26.69

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$17.01

Value

$17.01

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$2.51

Record

56%

453-353 (806)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.15

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$11.28

Record

41%

144-204 (348)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$1.81

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.44

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$1.35

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.87

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.1%

88.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.