Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 73¢ · $826 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$826.1
$87.78
67¢ → 73¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $448.18 | $400.77 | -$47.41 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
 tetrase | Yesavg 76.9¢ | $170.75 | $162.06 | -$8.69 | 60% 805-538 (1343) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $13.5 | $135.08 | +$121.58 | 55% 460-372 (832) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.8¢ | $89.86 | $78.19 | +$22.8 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.5 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
Invested
$448.18
Value
$400.77
PnL
-$47.41
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
tetraseInvested
$170.75
Value
$162.06
PnL
-$8.69
Record
60%
805-538 (1343)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$13.5
Value
$135.08
PnL
+$121.58
Record
55%
460-372 (832)
Invested
$89.86
Value
$78.19
PnL
+$22.8
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.