Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "The Day After Tomorrow" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $45 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$45.43

Combined PnL

-$42.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$39.98

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.45

Total Shares899

Combined PnL-$42.76

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.98	+$0.02	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$16.78	$5.13	-$11.66	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$15.14	$0.16	-$14.98	25% 47-140 (187)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$8.04	$0.08	-$7.95	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$4.05	$0.04	-$4.01	30% 1153-2701 (3854)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$3.09	$0.02	-$1.64	35% 3865-7145 (11010)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.43	$0.02	-$1.41	36% 286-506 (792)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$10.47	$0.01	-$0.94	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.17	$0	-$0.17	18% 858-4027 (4885)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.78

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$11.66

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.14

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$14.98

Record

25%

47-140 (187)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.04

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.95

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.01

Record

30%

1153-2701 (3854)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.64

Record

35%

3865-7145 (11010)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.41

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.47

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.94

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

PnL

-$0.17

Record

18%

858-4027 (4885)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.