Will "The Day After Tomorrow" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$80.77

Combined PnL

-$15.92

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$79.02

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$0.22

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.74

Total Shares317

Combined PnL-$15.7

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$30.42	$30.3	-$0.12	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.84	-$0.07	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.95	+$0.01	38% 319-511 (830)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.98	$6.95	-$0.03	35% 325-598 (923)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2	$1.99	-$0.01	47% 881-992 (1873)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.44	$1.14	-$8.3	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.14	$0.26	-$1.89	37% 305-523 (828)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$71.63	$0.23	-$4.73	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.89	$0.11	-$0.79	42% 5200-7083 (12283)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.42

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.84

PnL

-$0.07

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

319-511 (830)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.98

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.44

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$8.3

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.89

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.63

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$4.73

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.79

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.