Will the Danube River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $85 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$84.6
$9.45
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $22.76 | $30.57 | +$7.81 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $10.58 | $17.98 | +$7.4 | 40% 1458-2159 (3617) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $26.94 | $15.88 | -$11.06 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $8 | $11.75 | +$3.75 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $4.45 | $4.9 | +$0.45 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 48.5¢ | $2.42 | $3.53 | +$1.1 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$22.76
Value
$30.57
PnL
+$7.81
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$10.58
Value
$17.98
PnL
+$7.4
Record
40%
1458-2159 (3617)
Invested
$26.94
Value
$15.88
PnL
-$11.06
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8
Value
$11.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.45
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$1.1
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.