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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?

Resolved No. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

11

No 60%

Total Value

$263.81

Combined PnL

-$198.71

Smart Money Signal

No

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders
Total Value$263.81
Total Shares264
Combined PnL-$31.36
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares582
Combined PnL-$167.35
No — 82%Yes — 18%
CI
cigarettes
No

Invested

$160.53

Value

$160.81

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

SM
smallreceipt<$100
No

Invested

$74.7

Value

$75

PnL

+$0.31

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100
No

Invested

$66.48

Value

$28

PnL

-$2.73

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR
Yes

Invested

$315.01

Value

—

PnL

-$120.23

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

balthazarCTR
Yes

Invested

$190.38

Value

—

PnL

-$47.12

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

QW
qwen300.fund<$100
No

Invested

$53.38

Value

$0

PnL

-$10.52

Record

28%

3233-8195 (11428)

Lucerys<$100
No

Invested

$9.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

AN
anothercoin<$100
No

Invested

$4.9

Value

—

PnL

-$0.9

Record

37%

1569-2700 (4269)

GO
god83743894<$100
No

Invested

$72.75

Value

—

PnL

-$12.75

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

LU
luciebot<$100
No

Invested

$14.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

25%

730-2139 (2869)

12
123987456<$100
No

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$0.5

Record

32%

75-160 (235)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xf4848897...cdbbbd
Slug
will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-16-and-december-31-2026

Traders in this Market

CI

cigarettes

No — $160.81

+$0.28
SM

smallreceipt

No — $75

+$0.31
0X

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $28

-$2.73
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

-$120.23

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

-$47.12
QW

qwen300.fund

No — $0

-$10.52

Lucerys

No — $0

-$1.7
AN

anothercoin

No — $0

-$0.9
GO

god83743894

No — $0

-$12.75
LU

luciebot

No — $0

-$2.85
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