Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 92¢ · $139 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$138.7
-$12.55
95.9¢ → 91.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $73.5 | $67.5 | -$6 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $29.16 | $31.75 | +$2.59 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.4 | $17.82 | -$1.58 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.8 | +$0.2 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.9 | +$0.35 | 93% 41-3 (44) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.5 | -$0.4 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $10.13 | $2.43 | -$7.7 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
Invested
$73.5
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$6
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$29.16
Value
$31.75
PnL
+$2.59
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$17.82
PnL
-$1.58
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.35
Record
93%
41-3 (44)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
Invested
$10.13
Value
$2.43
PnL
-$7.7
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.