Will the Danube River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 65¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$323.31
-$20.05
69.3¢ → 65.4¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 72.4¢ | $255.78 | $230.94 | -$24.84 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $48.27 | $49.05 | +$0.78 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $17.09 | $20.61 | +$3.52 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $12.72 | $13.08 | +$0.36 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $6.27 | $6.36 | +$0.09 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $3.22 | $3.27 | +$0.05 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$255.78
Value
$230.94
PnL
-$24.84
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$48.27
Value
$49.05
PnL
+$0.78
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$17.09
Value
$20.61
PnL
+$3.52
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.72
Value
$13.08
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$0.09
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.27
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.