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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?

Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Yes 43%

Total Value

$298.81

Combined PnL

-$221.71

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders
Total Value$298.81
Total Shares299
Combined PnL-$12.9
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares929
Combined PnL-$208.81
No — 67%Yes — 33%
CI
cigarettes
No

Invested

$120.69

Value

$120.81

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

GR
graynotebook19<$100
No

Invested

$74.1

Value

$75

PnL

+$0.9

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

NO
northdrawer<$100
No

Invested

$73.9

Value

$75

PnL

+$1.1

Record

30%

1134-2680 (3814)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR
Yes

Invested

$167.81

Value

—

PnL

-$146.22

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100
No

Invested

$65.74

Value

$28

PnL

-$0.77

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

balthazarCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$51.24

Value

—

PnL

-$51.24

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

12
123987456CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

32%

75-160 (235)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

—

PnL

-$10.35

Record

28%

3233-8195 (11428)

Lucerys<$100
No

Invested

$9.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

AN
anothercoin<$100
No

Invested

$4.95

Value

—

PnL

-$0.95

Record

37%

1569-2700 (4269)

GO
god83743894<$100
No

Invested

$68.63

Value

—

PnL

-$8.63

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

LU
luciebot<$100
No

Invested

$14.98

Value

—

PnL

-$2.98

Record

25%

730-2139 (2869)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xf53d9efb...63766b
Slug
will-the-danube-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-by-january-1-2027

Traders in this Market

CI

cigarettes

No — $120.81

+$0.12
GR

graynotebook19

No — $75

+$0.9
NO

northdrawer

No — $75

+$1.1
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

-$146.22
0X

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $28

-$0.77

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

-$51.24
12

123987456

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $0

-$10.35

Lucerys

No — $0

-$1.7
AN

anothercoin

No — $0

-$0.95
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