Will "The Croods" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$159.18

Combined PnL

-$42.95

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$153.81

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.37

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$43.1

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.8¢	$123.7	$123.83	+$0.13	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$16.78	$5.12	-$11.66	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$8.99	$0.09	-$8.89	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$163.55	$0.08	-$14.9	26% 55-157 (212)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$4.58	$0.05	-$4.53	34% 352-671 (1023)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$16.08	$0.01	-$1.88	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.19	$0.01	-$1.18	57% 836-638 (1474)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.05	$0	-$0.05	30% 1175-2733 (3908)

mildwindow27

Invested

$123.7

Value

$123.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.78

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$11.66

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.99

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.89

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.55

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.9

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.58

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.53

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.88

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.