Will "The Croods" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$127.96

Combined PnL

-$8.44

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$126.71

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$0.07

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.93

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$8.51

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49	$49.04	+$0.04	35% 325-598 (923)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.96	-$0	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.45	$10.46	+$0.01	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.2	$10.2	+$0	47% 881-992 (1873)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.85	$9.87	+$0.02	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.18	$5.18	+$0	52% 936-867 (1803)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2	$2	+$0	50% 912-916 (1828)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.44	$0.93	-$8.51	38% 3787-6190 (9977)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$49.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.44

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$8.51

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.