Will the Columbus Blue Jackets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$181.57

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,258

Combined PnL-$2

Yes8 traders

Total Value$473.93

Total Shares43,414

Combined PnL-$179.57

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 98.4¢	$611.54	$614.72	+$3.18	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.5¢	$371.47	$372.96	+$1.49	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
RO royalestakeCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$375	$275	-$112.5	47% 396-449 (845)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.5¢	$168.29	$163.78	-$7.23	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$100.33	$98.88	-$1.45	52% 5946-5556 (11502)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$89.91	$90.45	+$0.54	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$183.81	$74.21	-$109.6	56% 270-211 (481)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$32.17	$21.43	-$11.71	41% 2015-2858 (4873)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$10.08	$5.18	+$0.02	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.59	$2.02	-$0.58	34% 559-1062 (1621)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.73	$1.3	+$56.57	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yes	$0.92	$0.92	-$0.25	40% 2728-4097 (6825)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.23	$0.17	-$0.06	58% 19424-14279 (33703)

donthackme

Invested

$611.54

Value

$614.72

PnL

+$3.18

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$371.47

Value

$372.96

PnL

+$1.49

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

royalestakeCTR

Yes

Invested

$375

Value

$275

PnL

-$112.5

Record

47%

396-449 (845)

Lucerys

Invested

$168.29

Value

$163.78

PnL

-$7.23

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.33

Value

$98.88

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

5946-5556 (11502)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$89.91

Value

$90.45

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.81

Value

$74.21

PnL

-$109.6

Record

56%

270-211 (481)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.17

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$11.71

Record

41%

2015-2858 (4873)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.58

Record

34%

559-1062 (1621)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$56.57

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

2728-4097 (6825)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.