Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$557.64

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,650

Combined PnL+$41.04

No6 traders

Total Value$881.09

Total Shares4,314

Combined PnL-$598.68

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Elonurmom	Yesavg 68.8¢	$600	$666.77	+$66.77	— 2-10 (12)
GonTanakaCTR	Noavg 33¢	$500.46	$517.29	+$16.83	— 0-2 (2)
realbengvir	Yesavg 98.7¢	$367.49	$334.99	-$32.5	8% 2-22 (24)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 64¢	$256	$256	+$0	8% 9-101 (110)
KI KiruaTradingCTR	Noavg 35.8¢	$223.35	$196.74	-$26.61	— 5-3 (8)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 40.4¢	$392.72	$118.93	-$43.58	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 40.8¢	$44.83	$37.51	-$7.33	38% 14-23 (37)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$5.62	$9.87	+$4.25	41% 33-47 (80)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$4.55	$5.38	+$6.77	32% 224-485 (709)
Optimus-CTR	Noavg 36¢	$543	$0.75	-$542.25	35% 7-13 (20)

Elonurmom

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$666.77

PnL

+$66.77

Record

—

2-10 (12)

GonTanakaCTR

Invested

$500.46

Value

$517.29

PnL

+$16.83

Record

—

0-2 (2)

realbengvir

Yes

Invested

$367.49

Value

$334.99

PnL

-$32.5

Record

2-22 (24)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$256

Value

$256

PnL

+$0

Record

9-101 (110)

KiruaTradingCTR

Invested

$223.35

Value

$196.74

PnL

-$26.61

Record

—

5-3 (8)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$392.72

Value

$118.93

PnL

-$43.58

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$44.83

Value

$37.51

PnL

-$7.33

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$4.25

Record

41%

33-47 (80)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$6.77

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

Optimus-CTR

Invested

$543

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$542.25

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.