Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 18

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$173.87

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 66¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$892.12

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL+$202.53

No6 traders

Total Value$171.35

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$28.66

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

348h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 55.7¢	$652.65	$773.53	+$120.88	45% 389-485 (874)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 39.6¢	$153.36	$126.69	-$21.9	16% 410-2142 (2552)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 55.4¢	$920.25	$118.59	+$81.66	35% 17137-31654 (48791)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$13.76	$12.92	-$0.84	42% 6067-8370 (14437)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.95	$10.54	-$3.41	17% 1044-5063 (6107)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$94.48	$9.3	-$0.27	42% 5362-7384 (12746)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$8.28	$7.82	-$0.46	24% 285-886 (1171)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.46	$4.08	-$1.78	25% 1608-4781 (6389)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$652.65

Value

$773.53

PnL

+$120.88

Record

45%

389-485 (874)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$153.36

Value

$126.69

PnL

-$21.9

Record

16%

410-2142 (2552)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$920.25

Value

$118.59

PnL

+$81.66

Record

35%

17137-31654 (48791)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$13.76

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$0.84

Record

42%

6067-8370 (14437)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$10.54

PnL

-$3.41

Record

17%

1044-5063 (6107)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$94.48

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

5362-7384 (12746)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$0.46

Record

24%

285-886 (1171)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$1.78

Record

25%

1608-4781 (6389)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

348h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.