Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the January meeting?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $40 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$39.77
$1.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.66 | $11.34 | +$1.68 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $10.8 | +$1 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $11.95 | $10.78 | -$1.17 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.7 | +$0.1 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.3 | -$0.1 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.68 | $1.85 | +$0.17 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
Invested
$9.66
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$1.68
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$11.95
Value
$10.78
PnL
-$1.17
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.17
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.