Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the January meeting?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $89 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$88.6
-$0.29
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $55.81 | $61.66 | +$5.85 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.9¢ | $37.77 | $36.45 | -$1.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15¢ | $18.04 | $25.21 | +$7.17 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $16 | -$1.8 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $4.2 | +$2 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4 | -$0.15 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $3.09 | $2.74 | -$0.34 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
Invested
$55.81
Value
$61.66
PnL
+$5.85
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.8
Value
$16
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$2
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$0.34
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.