Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $538 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$538.37

Combined PnL

$86.61

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 99.9¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$535.55

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$55.52

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.83

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$31.09

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 98.3¢	$211.26	$154.77	+$0.08	60% 18915-12738 (31653)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93¢	$124.21	$133.32	+$9.11	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$78.66	$77.98	+$4.05	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$52.63	$52.65	+$0.02	29% 494-1196 (1690)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$46.97	$50.76	+$4.76	26% 7407-21213 (28620)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96¢	$57.63	$29.96	+$0.02	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 94.2¢	$335.98	$26.13	+$37.49	48% 11465-12267 (23732)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$91.21	$9.99	+$0	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$52.34	$2.18	+$36.89	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$50.96	$0.65	-$5.8	34% 2138-4091 (6229)

graynotebook19

Invested

$211.26

Value

$154.77

PnL

+$0.08

Record

60%

18915-12738 (31653)

cigarettes

Invested

$124.21

Value

$133.32

PnL

+$9.11

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

123987456<$100

Invested

$78.66

Value

$77.98

PnL

+$4.05

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$52.63

Value

$52.65

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

494-1196 (1690)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$50.76

PnL

+$4.76

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$57.63

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

quietparcel

Invested

$335.98

Value

$26.13

PnL

+$37.49

Record

48%

11465-12267 (23732)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$91.21

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.34

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$36.89

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.96

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$5.8

Record

34%

2138-4091 (6229)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.