Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$95.99

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 95.3¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,445

Combined PnL+$385.72

Yes5 traders

Total Value$85.46

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL-$481.71

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 78.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$239.99	30% 35274-83611 (118885)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 87.9¢	$827.42	$896.4	+$68.97	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72¢	$569.45	$448.18	+$56.84	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92¢	$167.66	$174.34	+$6.68	47% 47397-53674 (101071)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 89.1¢	$96.31	$103.02	+$6.71	23% 8528-28959 (37487)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 48.5¢	$504.4	$57.2	-$447.2	56% 2859-2279 (5138)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$17.1	$23.63	+$6.53	55% 25968-21274 (47242)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$20.82	$18.24	-$2.58	46% 6878-8119 (14997)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$41.13	$9.3	-$31.83	54% 1523-1280 (2803)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.53	$0.44	-$0.09	22% 3328-11802 (15130)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.29	$0.28	-$0.01	30% 2914-6654 (9568)

balthazar

Invested

$1,518.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$239.99

Record

30%

35274-83611 (118885)

cigarettes

Invested

$827.42

Value

$896.4

PnL

+$68.97

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$569.45

Value

$448.18

PnL

+$56.84

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$167.66

Value

$174.34

PnL

+$6.68

Record

47%

47397-53674 (101071)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$96.31

Value

$103.02

PnL

+$6.71

Record

23%

8528-28959 (37487)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$504.4

Value

$57.2

PnL

-$447.2

Record

56%

2859-2279 (5138)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$23.63

PnL

+$6.53

Record

55%

25968-21274 (47242)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.82

Value

$18.24

PnL

-$2.58

Record

46%

6878-8119 (14997)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.13

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$31.83

Record

54%

1523-1280 (2803)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.09

Record

22%

3328-11802 (15130)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

2914-6654 (9568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.