Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$486.98

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 47.3¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,820

Combined PnL+$746.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$194.13

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$259.94

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 16.5¢	$662.99	$637.24	-$25.75	50% 65525-65845 (131370)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 8¢	$83.2	$550.52	+$467.32	47% 47421-53861 (101282)
balthazar	Noavg 17.2¢	$738.53	$245.37	+$241.18	30% 35305-83677 (118982)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 59.2¢	$2.3K	$157.91	-$323.52	32% 21174-45399 (66573)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Yesavg 88.6¢	$251.1	$124.1	-$79.5	23% 8560-28980 (37540)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 88.6¢	$126.74	$65.57	-$61.19
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$76.85	$58.54	-$18.32
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$84.46	$45.74	+$41.67	55% 25985-21276 (47261)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$79	$36.22	+$63.58	32% 2583-5604 (8187)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 5.9¢	$210.85	$25.24	+$22.49	52% 8997-8175 (17172)

cigarettes

Invested

$662.99

Value

$637.24

PnL

-$25.75

Record

50%

65525-65845 (131370)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$83.2

Value

$550.52

PnL

+$467.32

Record

47%

47421-53861 (101282)

balthazar

Invested

$738.53

Value

$245.37

PnL

+$241.18

Record

30%

35305-83677 (118982)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,298.19

Value

$157.91

PnL

-$323.52

Record

32%

21174-45399 (66573)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$251.1

Value

$124.1

PnL

-$79.5

Record

23%

8560-28980 (37540)

Both legs:

Yes$126.7488.6¢-$61.19

No$76.8571.1¢-$18.32

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$84.46

Value

$45.74

PnL

+$41.67

Record

55%

25985-21276 (47261)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79

Value

$36.22

PnL

+$63.58

Record

32%

2583-5604 (8187)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$210.85

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$22.49

Record

52%

8997-8175 (17172)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.6%

47.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.