Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 96¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$543.81

Combined PnL

-$3.76

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 96.2¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$531.51

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$24.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.3

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$28.57

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 91.5¢	$145.33	$152.25	+$6.92	49% 805-834 (1639)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 82.1¢	$134.64	$91.87	+$26.64	65% 4336-2356 (6692)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$84.83	$81.47	-$3.36	35% 295-538 (833)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$81.13	$77.92	-$3.21	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$80.61	$77.64	-$2.97	46% 1146-1345 (2491)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.6	$39.81	+$0.21	29% 1117-2676 (3793)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$36.81	$11.3	-$25.51	39% 3677-5855 (9532)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.97	$10.56	+$0.59	54% 31-26 (57)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.06	$0.99	-$3.06	43% 5116-6764 (11880)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$145.33

Value

$152.25

PnL

+$6.92

Record

49%

805-834 (1639)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$134.64

Value

$91.87

PnL

+$26.64

Record

65%

4336-2356 (6692)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$84.83

Value

$81.47

PnL

-$3.36

Record

35%

295-538 (833)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$81.13

Value

$77.92

PnL

-$3.21

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$80.61

Value

$77.64

PnL

-$2.97

Record

46%

1146-1345 (2491)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.81

PnL

+$0.21

Record

29%

1117-2676 (3793)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.81

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$25.51

Record

39%

3677-5855 (9532)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$0.59

Record

54%

31-26 (57)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$3.06

Record

43%

5116-6764 (11880)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.