Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 14¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$307.55

Combined PnL

-$26.94

Smart Money Entry

19.6¢ → 14¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$198.55

Total Shares231

Combined PnL+$13.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$108.88

Total Shares764

Combined PnL-$40.92

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO rocky42019	Noavg 78¢	$99.54	$108.05	+$8.51	38% 17-28 (45)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$126.22	$95.48	-$30.74	11% 15-117 (132)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$33.36	$34.12	+$0.76	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 77¢	$20.06	$22.14	+$2.08	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 77¢	$18.6	$20.53	+$1.93	50% 723-711 (1434)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$18.81	$9.69	-$9.12	16% 24-123 (147)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.5	+$0.2	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.72	$5.21	+$0.49	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18.7¢	$104.94	$3.7	-$1.05	39% 3649-5778 (9427)

rocky42019

Invested

$99.54

Value

$108.05

PnL

+$8.51

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.22

Value

$95.48

PnL

-$30.74

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$33.36

Value

$34.12

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.06

Value

$22.14

PnL

+$2.08

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$20.53

PnL

+$1.93

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.81

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$9.12

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.94

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$1.05

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.