Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 26¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 15

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$413.38

Combined PnL

$15.37

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$167.33

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$28.13

No10 traders

Total Value$246.05

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$43.5

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$195.46	$167.33	-$28.13	11% 15-117 (132)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$52.37	$56.1	+$3.73	31% 1085-2425 (3510)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$49.83	$54.91	+$5.08	40% 254-374 (628)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 67¢	$54.27	$53.46	-$0.81	49% 849-871 (1720)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$30.11	$33	+$3.23	36% 268-480 (748)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$15.85	$16.33	+$0.47	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 58¢	$271.68	$12.72	+$25.37	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 57¢	$4.75	$6.96	+$2.2	52% 837-762 (1599)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$26.32	$6.22	+$3.52	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 60¢	$6.2	$3.23	+$0.44	25% 733-2166 (2899)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.86	$3.13	+$0.27	28% 3241-8219 (11460)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$195.46

Value

$167.33

PnL

-$28.13

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$52.37

Value

$56.1

PnL

+$3.73

Record

31%

1085-2425 (3510)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$49.83

Value

$54.91

PnL

+$5.08

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$54.27

Value

$53.46

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$30.11

Value

$33

PnL

+$3.23

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.85

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$271.68

Value

$12.72

PnL

+$25.37

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$2.2

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$26.32

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$3.52

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.44

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.27

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.