Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 20¢ · $597 held · ends Nov 15

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$597.38

Combined PnL

-$33.88

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 20¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$180.53

Total Shares821

Combined PnL-$17.49

No5 traders

Total Value$273.07

Total Shares347

Combined PnL-$16.4

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$131.68	$143.78	+$17.6	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.5¢	$61.95	$79.78	+$19.16
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$64	$64	-$1.56
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$151.42	$129.27	-$22.15	11% 15-117 (132)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 81.4¢	$123.11	$118.76	-$4.35	40% 254-374 (628)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 86¢	$73.1	$66.73	-$6.37	38% 286-470 (756)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 86¢	$69.66	$63.59	-$6.07	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$45.6	$50.16	+$4.56	52% 830-759 (1589)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$16	+$0	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$8	+$0.4	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	$1.1	+$0.1	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$131.68

Value

$143.78

PnL

+$17.6

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

Both legs:

Yes$61.9515.5¢+$19.16

No$6480¢-$1.56

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.42

Value

$129.27

PnL

-$22.15

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$123.11

Value

$118.76

PnL

-$4.35

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$73.1

Value

$66.73

PnL

-$6.37

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$69.66

Value

$63.59

PnL

-$6.07

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.6

Value

$50.16

PnL

+$4.56

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$16

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.