Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 12m?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $653 held · ends Nov 15

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$653.49

Combined PnL

-$35.16

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 58.5¢

-26% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$583.96

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$38.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$69.53

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$3.13

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Noavg 91.3¢	$364.77	$319.7	-$45.06	7% 16-201 (217)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$52.64	$62.26	+$9.62	57% 751-556 (1307)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 94¢	$65.8	$56	-$9.8	40% 243-368 (611)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$46.25	$54.4	+$8.15	31% 257-583 (840)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$105.78	$51.97	+$23.97	39% 3675-5843 (9518)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 90¢	$36	$32	-$4	27% 1033-2746 (3779)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$15.65	$16.28	+$0.62	49% 833-863 (1696)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11.15	$12.99	+$1.83	43% 5110-6750 (11860)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$13.29	$12.19	-$1.1	58% 772-549 (1321)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$9.61	$8.93	-$0.69	38% 18-29 (47)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$28.8	$8.64	-$20.16	52% 815-755 (1570)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 59¢	$6.59	$7.15	+$0.56	50% 767-764 (1531)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.64	$3.95	+$0.31	61% 779-497 (1276)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.39	$3.76	+$0.37	32% 73-158 (231)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3.09	$3.3	+$0.21	46% 1143-1343 (2486)

JokerTheClown

Invested

$364.77

Value

$319.7

PnL

-$45.06

Record

16-201 (217)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$52.64

Value

$62.26

PnL

+$9.62

Record

57%

751-556 (1307)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$65.8

Value

$56

PnL

-$9.8

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$46.25

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$8.15

Record

31%

257-583 (840)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.78

Value

$51.97

PnL

+$23.97

Record

39%

3675-5843 (9518)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$32

PnL

-$4

Record

27%

1033-2746 (3779)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.65

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

833-863 (1696)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$1.83

Record

43%

5110-6750 (11860)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.29

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$1.1

Record

58%

772-549 (1321)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.61

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$0.69

Record

38%

18-29 (47)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.8

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$20.16

Record

52%

815-755 (1570)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

767-764 (1531)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.31

Record

61%

779-497 (1276)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.37

Record

32%

73-158 (231)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

1143-1343 (2486)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.