Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Carolina Panthers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 34¢ · $824 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$824.07
$17.53
36.1¢ → 34¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+50 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $635.24 | $407.55 | -$29.8 | 35% 17549-32799 (50348) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45¢ | $185.82 | $233.25 | +$57.29 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.2¢ | $241.22 | $174.31 | -$87.09 | |
 macrosteaksCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $136.01 | $178.74 | -$20.71 | 55% 3435-2832 (6267) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $114.51 | $132.02 | +$17.52 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $100.86 | $98.82 | +$1.82 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $116.24 | $6.94 | +$18.9 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
Invested
$635.24
Value
$407.55
PnL
-$29.8
Record
35%
17549-32799 (50348)
Both legs:
macrosteaksCTRInvested
$136.01
Value
$178.74
PnL
-$20.71
Record
55%
3435-2832 (6267)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$114.51
Value
$132.02
PnL
+$17.52
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Invested
$100.86
Value
$98.82
PnL
+$1.82
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$116.24
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$18.9
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.