Will "The Body: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $936 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$935.99
$84.89
95.1¢ → 98.8¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
70h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheWindKnowsmyName | Noavg 96.1¢ | $622.25 | $588.57 | +$12.81 | 17% 34-165 (199) |
GA Gaditima | Noavg 93.5¢ | $430.05 | $216.01 | +$75.78 | 49% 383-400 (783) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $28.56 | $29.7 | +$1.14 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $28.74 | $29.7 | +$0.96 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $28.56 | $29.7 | +$1.14 | 35% 330-600 (930) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $16.6 | $20 | +$3.4 | 52% 200-187 (387) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.8 | +$0.02 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $60.42 | $2.5 | -$10.36 | 38% 3804-6225 (10029) |
Invested
$622.25
Value
$588.57
PnL
+$12.81
Record
17%
34-165 (199)
Invested
$430.05
Value
$216.01
PnL
+$75.78
Record
49%
383-400 (783)
Invested
$28.56
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$1.14
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
Invested
$28.74
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.96
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$28.56
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$1.14
Record
35%
330-600 (930)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.4
Record
52%
200-187 (387)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$60.42
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$10.36
Record
38%
3804-6225 (10029)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.