Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $295 held · ends Feb 12, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$295.16
$22.24
81.6¢ → 90.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.7¢ | $168 | $184.6 | +$16.6 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $81.14 | $89.88 | +$8.75 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18.5 | -$0.1 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.62 | $1.54 | -$3.08 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.56 | $0.64 | +$0.08 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
Invested
$168
Value
$184.6
PnL
+$16.6
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$81.14
Value
$89.88
PnL
+$8.75
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$3.08
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.08
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.