Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate at the January meeting?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 51¢ · $424 held · ends Jan 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
2 arb excluded
$424.33
-$7.48
54.1¢ → 50.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $130.15 | $124.95 | -$5.2 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $106.6 | $119.1 | +$12.51 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.7¢ | $80.6 | $77.95 | -$2.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $26 | $41.16 | +$15.16 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $79.8 | $76.5 | -$3.3 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $70.81 | $46 | -$2.8 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73¢ | $33.58 | $23.46 | -$10.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $17.88 | $22.54 | +$7.32 | |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $26.16 | $28.58 | +$2.42 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $15.3 | -$7.2 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $18.74 | $11.35 | +$6.09 | 66% 4116-2138 (6254) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.55 | -$0.3 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
Invested
$130.15
Value
$124.95
PnL
-$5.2
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$106.6
Value
$119.1
PnL
+$12.51
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.8
Value
$76.5
PnL
-$3.3
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$70.81
Value
$46
PnL
-$2.8
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.16
Value
$28.58
PnL
+$2.42
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$15.3
PnL
-$7.2
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$18.74
Value
$11.35
PnL
+$6.09
Record
66%
4116-2138 (6254)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.3
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.