Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate at the February meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $370 held · ends Feb 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$370.32
-$22.96
73.2¢ → 68.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 72.9¢ | $116.7 | $109.6 | -$7.1 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $91.05 | $85.63 | -$5.42 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $78.44 | $72.61 | -$5.83 | 84% 47-9 (56) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $74.74 | $69.19 | -$5.55 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $32.35 | $33.3 | +$0.95 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
balthazarInvested
$116.7
Value
$109.6
PnL
-$7.1
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$91.05
Value
$85.63
PnL
-$5.42
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$78.44
Value
$72.61
PnL
-$5.83
Record
84%
47-9 (56)
Invested
$74.74
Value
$69.19
PnL
-$5.55
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$32.35
Value
$33.3
PnL
+$0.95
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.