Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 65¢ · $406 held · ends Jan 14, 2027

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Jan 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$406.42

Combined PnL

$77.94

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 65¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$307.67

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$98.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$98.75

Total Shares192

Combined PnL-$20.82

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 44.7¢	$100.48	$146.25	+$45.77	29% 882-2138 (3020)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$66.7	$93.76	+$27.06	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$85.93	$67.38	-$18.55	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$27.7	$32.5	+$4.8	17% 76-374 (450)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$27.78	$26.13	-$1.65	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 30¢	$9	$19.5	+$10.5	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2.8	$9.09	+$6.3	27% 104-283 (387)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$23.06	$5.25	-$0.62	3% 1-31 (32)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 43¢	$205.55	$3.32	+$3.7	43% 13-17 (30)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$3.25	+$0.65	39% 1297-2005 (3302)

mildwindow27

Invested

$100.48

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$45.77

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$66.7

Value

$93.76

PnL

+$27.06

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.93

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$18.55

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$4.8

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.78

Value

$26.13

PnL

-$1.65

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$6.3

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.06

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.62

Record

1-31 (32)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$205.55

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$3.7

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.