Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 64¢ · $279 held · ends Feb 25, 2027

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Thu, Feb 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$278.8

Combined PnL

$23.61

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$193.25

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$2.25

No2 traders

Total Value$85.56

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$25.86

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 65.2¢	$195.49	$193.25	-$2.25	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$40	$58.4	+$18.4	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$19.7	$27.16	+$7.46	40% 1457-2158 (3615)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$195.49

Value

$193.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$58.4

PnL

+$18.4

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$19.7

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$7.46

Record

40%

1457-2158 (3615)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.