Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 26

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Thu, Nov 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$129.88

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 85¢

+55% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,296

Combined PnL+$269.61

Yes4 traders

Total Value$168.59

Total Shares652

Combined PnL-$139.72

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

752h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 59.9¢	$991.71	$611.57	+$58.03	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 50.3¢	$317.94	$459.76	+$168.22	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 52.5¢	$101.06	$85.37	-$15.7	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$47.85	$84.5	+$36.65	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$135	$51.03	-$83.97	50% 1272-1290 (2562)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.7¢	$67.55	$29.19	-$38.36	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 76¢	$31.21	$19.9	-$4.4	15% 459-2699 (3158)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 46¢	$5.36	$9.85	+$4.49	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$8.45	+$1.15	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 47¢	$4.7	$8.45	+$3.75	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.05	$3.76	+$1.71	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.8	$3	-$1.7	44% 2186-2829 (5015)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$991.71

Value

$611.57

PnL

+$58.03

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$317.94

Value

$459.76

PnL

+$168.22

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.06

Value

$85.37

PnL

-$15.7

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$47.85

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$36.65

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$135

Value

$51.03

PnL

-$83.97

Record

50%

1272-1290 (2562)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.55

Value

$29.19

PnL

-$38.36

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$4.4

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$5.36

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$4.49

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$1.15

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$3.75

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

merod<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$1.71

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

-$1.7

Record

44%

2186-2829 (5015)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

752h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.