Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate by 50+ bps at the January meeting?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $94 held · ends Jan 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$93.53
-$0.85
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.79 | -$0.15 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.83 | $28.89 | -$0.94 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.26 | -$0.6 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.97 | $13.89 | -$0.07 | 40% 1420-2155 (3575) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.79 | $1.69 | +$0.91 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.79
PnL
-$0.15
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$28.89
PnL
-$0.94
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.26
PnL
-$0.6
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.89
PnL
-$0.07
Record
40%
1420-2155 (3575)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0.91
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.