Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $518 held · ends Feb 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$518.42
$26.59
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $159.52 | $159.76 | +$0.24 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.63 | $124.81 | +$0.19 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.89 | $89.98 | +$89.09 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $105.89 | $73.67 | -$32.22 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $100.9 | $70.2 | -$30.7 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
balthazarInvested
$159.52
Value
$159.76
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$124.63
Value
$124.81
PnL
+$0.19
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$89.98
PnL
+$89.09
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$105.89
Value
$73.67
PnL
-$32.22
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$100.9
Value
$70.2
PnL
-$30.7
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.