Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $267 held · ends Jan 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$267.5
$0.01
99.2¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $223.68 | $223.68 | +$0 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.82 | +$0.42 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $13.81 | $13.91 | +$0.1 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.6 | $0.09 | -$0.51 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
Invested
$223.68
Value
$223.68
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.82
PnL
+$0.42
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$13.91
PnL
+$0.1
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.51
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.