Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 74¢ · $430 held · ends Nov 23

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$429.83

Combined PnL

$77.39

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 74.3¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$171.87

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$34.67

Yes6 traders

Total Value$158.51

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$42.72

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Yesavg 95.9¢	$119.28	$99.45	-$19.83	49% 398-411 (809)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 95.9¢	$95.52	$73.95	-$21.56
└ No leg	Noavg 24¢	$23.76	$25.49	+$1.73
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 19.2¢	$271.71	$74.71	-$3.49	39% 1111-1753 (2864)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$53	$69.05	+$16.05	48% 1313-1406 (2719)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 75.8¢	$45.99	$55.91	+$9.92	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 91.2¢	$42.79	$36.01	+$13.22	53% 7542-6645 (14187)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 5.5¢	$6.01	$28.12	+$22.11	29% 1110-2781 (3891)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 83.1¢	$61.83	$20.41	-$0.3	14% 109-653 (762)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 97¢	$100.05	$19.47	+$4.47	18% 37-169 (206)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$8.08	$14.46	+$6.39	40% 279-413 (692)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.23	$12.25	+$9.02	40% 2681-3987 (6668)

GaditimaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$119.28

Value

$99.45

PnL

-$19.83

Record

49%

398-411 (809)

Both legs:

Yes$95.5295.9¢-$21.56

No$23.7624¢+$1.73

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$271.71

Value

$74.71

PnL

-$3.49

Record

39%

1111-1753 (2864)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$16.05

Record

48%

1313-1406 (2719)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.99

Value

$55.91

PnL

+$9.92

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.79

Value

$36.01

PnL

+$13.22

Record

53%

7542-6645 (14187)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$28.12

PnL

+$22.11

Record

29%

1110-2781 (3891)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.83

Value

$20.41

PnL

-$0.3

Record

14%

109-653 (762)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$100.05

Value

$19.47

PnL

+$4.47

Record

18%

37-169 (206)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.08

Value

$14.46

PnL

+$6.39

Record

40%

279-413 (692)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$9.02

Record

40%

2681-3987 (6668)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

74.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.