Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the January meeting?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $163 held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$162.64
-$41.1
82.1¢ → 58¢
-29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HoshinoAI | Yesavg 82.8¢ | $140.35 | $55.83 | -$35.53 | 43% 13-17 (30) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $46.4 | $51.06 | +$4.66 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $55.43 | $42.32 | -$13.11 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $10.55 | $13.42 | +$2.88 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
HoshinoAIInvested
$140.35
Value
$55.83
PnL
-$35.53
Record
43%
13-17 (30)
Invested
$46.4
Value
$51.06
PnL
+$4.66
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$55.43
Value
$42.32
PnL
-$13.11
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$13.42
PnL
+$2.88
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.