Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the February meeting?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 74¢ · $171 held · ends Feb 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$171.04
$0.81
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
196h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $61.8 | $64.4 | +$2.6 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.6¢ | $39.39 | $41.35 | +$1.96 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $38.8 | $40.72 | +$1.92 | 13% 25-175 (200) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 34.8¢ | $26.1 | $19.5 | -$6.6 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.49 | $3.77 | +$1.27 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.3 | -$0.35 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$61.8
Value
$64.4
PnL
+$2.6
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$39.39
Value
$41.35
PnL
+$1.96
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$38.8
Value
$40.72
PnL
+$1.92
Record
13%
25-175 (200)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$6.6
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$1.27
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.35
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.