Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $508 held · ends Nov 23

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$507.81

Combined PnL

-$43.48

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$507.5

Total Shares508

Combined PnL-$17.14

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$26.33

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$240.94	$241.26	+$0.32	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.7¢	$118.85	$119.08	+$0.23	36% 355-623 (978)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$50.01	$50.16	+$0.15	29% 1121-2791 (3912)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.85	$49.95	+$0.1	36% 378-681 (1059)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$65	$47.05	-$17.94	38% 3881-6344 (10225)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.76	$0.19	-$0.57	19% 40-169 (209)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12.92	$0.06	-$12.86	26% 614-1782 (2396)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$0.02	-$3.98	15% 39-214 (253)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$2.44	$0.02	-$2.42	40% 280-415 (695)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$17.99	$0.02	-$6.5	28% 3336-8584 (11920)

cigarettes

Invested

$240.94

Value

$241.26

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

smallreceipt

Invested

$118.85

Value

$119.08

PnL

+$0.23

Record

36%

355-623 (978)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$50.01

Value

$50.16

PnL

+$0.15

Record

29%

1121-2791 (3912)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$65

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$17.94

Record

38%

3881-6344 (10225)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.57

Record

19%

40-169 (209)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.92

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.86

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.98

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.42

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.99

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.5

Record

28%

3336-8584 (11920)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.