Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 92¢ · $136 held · ends Feb 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$135.53
-$2.18
88.6¢ → 92¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $66.75 | $69 | +$2.25 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $47.52 | $48 | +$0.48 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $9.6 | $6.4 | -$3.2 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $7.56 | $6.04 | -$1.51 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.6 | +$0.15 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $2.52 | $1.08 | -$0.14 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.61 | $0.41 | -$0.2 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
Invested
$66.75
Value
$69
PnL
+$2.25
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$47.52
Value
$48
PnL
+$0.48
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$3.2
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$6.04
PnL
-$1.51
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.14
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0.2
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.