Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 23

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$366.99

Combined PnL

-$60.51

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$366.39

Total Shares366

Combined PnL-$10.2

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.6

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$50.31

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$69.06	$69.13	+$0.07	36% 378-681 (1059)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$50.16	$50.16	+$0	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.98	+$0.02	29% 1121-2791 (3912)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.91	$49.95	+$0.04	36% 355-622 (977)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$57.61	$47.23	-$10.38	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12.92	$0.32	-$12.6	26% 614-1782 (2396)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.15	$0.1	-$4.04	38% 334-535 (869)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$0.1	-$3.9	15% 39-214 (253)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	40% 280-415 (695)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$63.23	$0.02	-$18.04	35% 3950-7384 (11334)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$16.67	$0.01	-$6.51	28% 3336-8584 (11920)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$13.25	$0.01	-$5.22	40% 2689-4008 (6697)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$69.06

Value

$69.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$50.16

Value

$50.16

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

1121-2791 (3912)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$49.91

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

355-622 (977)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$57.61

Value

$47.23

PnL

-$10.38

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.92

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$12.6

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.04

Record

38%

334-535 (869)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.9

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.23

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.04

Record

35%

3950-7384 (11334)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.51

Record

28%

3336-8584 (11920)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.22

Record

40%

2689-4008 (6697)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.