Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 5.4¢ · $110 held · ends Feb 22, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Feb 22, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$109.57

Combined PnL

-$0.01

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$100.92

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$7.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.65

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$7.44

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$65.32	$71.4	+$6.08	4% 15-322 (337)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$23.75	$24.76	+$1.01	16% 10-52 (62)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$4.42	$4.76	+$0.34	38% 1192-1980 (3172)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$6.96	$3.84	-$3.12	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$2.74	$2.16	-$0.57	40% 3002-4411 (7413)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$3.87	$1.44	-$2.43	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$2.08	$0.96	-$1.12	23% 80-263 (343)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$0.44	$0.24	-$0.2	25% 1195-3512 (4707)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$65.32

Value

$71.4

PnL

+$6.08

Record

15-322 (337)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$24.76

PnL

+$1.01

Record

16%

10-52 (62)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.34

Record

38%

1192-1980 (3172)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$3.12

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.57

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$2.43

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$1.12

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.2

Record

25%

1195-3512 (4707)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.4%

5.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1462.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

1562.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.