Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 9

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$29.41

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 63.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL+$70.57

Yes3 traders

Total Value$523.73

Total Shares1,530

Combined PnL-$41.16

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 58.7¢	$1.1K	$817.82	+$56.28	36% 15094-27222 (42316)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$364.05	$350.23	-$40.11	55% 336-270 (606)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 65.6¢	$227.76	$242.05	+$14.29	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$153.75	$160.31	+$6.56	50% 1651-1638 (3289)
SI simplemanCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$17.2	$13.19	-$7.6	47% 456-519 (975)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,109.68

Value

$817.82

PnL

+$56.28

Record

36%

15094-27222 (42316)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$364.05

Value

$350.23

PnL

-$40.11

Record

55%

336-270 (606)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$227.76

Value

$242.05

PnL

+$14.29

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$153.75

Value

$160.31

PnL

+$6.56

Record

50%

1651-1638 (3289)

simplemanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$13.19

PnL

-$7.6

Record

47%

456-519 (975)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.