Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $377 held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$376.53
-$3.45
99.4¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $156.65 | $155.9 | -$0.75 | 48% 3413-3685 (7098) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $46.27 | $46.29 | +$0.03 | 31% 286-635 (921) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $31.18 | $31.17 | -$0.01 | 32% 312-665 (977) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $21.98 | $21.85 | -$0.13 | 52% 2422-2215 (4637) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $21.22 | $21.24 | +$0.02 | 30% 255-588 (843) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $21.22 | $21.24 | +$0.02 | 40% 384-571 (955) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $20.77 | $20.79 | +$0.02 | 29% 188-471 (659) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $20.77 | $20.79 | +$0.02 | 28% 161-410 (571) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $19.92 | $19.94 | +$0.02 | 31% 307-668 (975) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $10.16 | $10.2 | +$0.04 | 52% 4911-4508 (9419) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $8.08 | $5.94 | -$2.14 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $1.77 | $1.18 | -$0.6 | 32% 4329-9310 (13639) |
Invested
$156.65
Value
$155.9
PnL
-$0.75
Record
48%
3413-3685 (7098)
Invested
$46.27
Value
$46.29
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
286-635 (921)
Invested
$31.18
Value
$31.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
32%
312-665 (977)
Invested
$21.98
Value
$21.85
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
2422-2215 (4637)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$21.24
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
255-588 (843)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$21.24
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
384-571 (955)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$20.79
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
188-471 (659)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$20.79
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
161-410 (571)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
307-668 (975)
Invested
$10.16
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
4911-4508 (9419)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$2.14
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.6
Record
32%
4329-9310 (13639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.