Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $379 held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$379.18
$1.38
98.1¢ → 99.6¢
+2% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $155.89 | $155.98 | +$0.09 | 48% 3419-3695 (7114) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $46.46 | $46.32 | -$0.15 | 31% 292-648 (940) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $31.31 | $31.19 | -$0.12 | 32% 315-677 (992) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $21.33 | $21.25 | -$0.07 | 30% 259-603 (862) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $21.35 | $21.25 | -$0.09 | 40% 386-581 (967) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.88 | $20.8 | -$0.07 | 28% 190-480 (670) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.88 | $20.8 | -$0.07 | 28% 164-422 (586) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $18.99 | $20.4 | +$1.42 | 36% 14860-26974 (41834) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.02 | $19.95 | -$0.07 | 31% 309-674 (983) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $10.15 | $10.2 | +$0.06 | 52% 4918-4516 (9434) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $9.94 | +$0.04 | 52% 2425-2216 (4641) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.66 | $1.09 | +$0.43 | 32% 4338-9330 (13668) |
Invested
$155.89
Value
$155.98
PnL
+$0.09
Record
48%
3419-3695 (7114)
Invested
$46.46
Value
$46.32
PnL
-$0.15
Record
31%
292-648 (940)
Invested
$31.31
Value
$31.19
PnL
-$0.12
Record
32%
315-677 (992)
Invested
$21.33
Value
$21.25
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
259-603 (862)
Invested
$21.35
Value
$21.25
PnL
-$0.09
Record
40%
386-581 (967)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$20.8
PnL
-$0.07
Record
28%
190-480 (670)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$20.8
PnL
-$0.07
Record
28%
164-422 (586)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$1.42
Record
36%
14860-26974 (41834)
Invested
$20.02
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.07
Record
31%
309-674 (983)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
4918-4516 (9434)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
2425-2216 (4641)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.43
Record
32%
4338-9330 (13668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.