Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$218.37
-$160.94
97.7¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
238h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97.6¢ | $193.98 | $198.64 | +$4.56 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.99 | +$0.01 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $24.28 | $4.41 | -$153.97 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
TE test456y78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $11.67 | $3.53 | -$10.79 | 36% 81-141 (222) |
JO JohnsansculotteCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.2 | $1.8 | -$0.75 | 36% 32-58 (90) |
Invested
$193.98
Value
$198.64
PnL
+$4.56
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$24.28
Value
$4.41
PnL
-$153.97
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$10.79
Record
36%
81-141 (222)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.75
Record
36%
32-58 (90)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.