Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $9 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$9.46
-$212.93
5.9¢ → 0.3¢
-96% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
537h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JohnsansculotteCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $68.94 | $3.83 | -$65.11 | 35% 32-60 (92) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $14.37 | $3 | -$11.37 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $114.83 | $2.18 | -$112.65 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $18.82 | $0.24 | -$18.59 | 25% 181-542 (723) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $5.43 | $0.22 | -$5.22 | 51% 444-427 (871) |
Invested
$68.94
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$65.11
Record
35%
32-60 (92)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$14.37
Value
$3
PnL
-$11.37
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$114.83
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$112.65
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$18.82
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$18.59
Record
25%
181-542 (723)
Invested
$5.43
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$5.22
Record
51%
444-427 (871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.