Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $885 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$884.51
-$8.25
88.6¢ → 88¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 88.7¢ | $511.65 | $507.34 | -$4.31 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 88.9¢ | $180.8 | $174.2 | -$3.6 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 87.2¢ | $131.22 | $132.42 | +$1.2 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $43.55 | -$0.95 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $27.59 | $27 | -$0.59 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$511.65
Value
$507.34
PnL
-$4.31
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
HaradwaithInvested
$180.8
Value
$174.2
PnL
-$3.6
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$131.22
Value
$132.42
PnL
+$1.2
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$43.55
PnL
-$0.95
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$27.59
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.59
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.